Reflecting on an independent UK
Jun. 24th, 2016 08:32 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mtbcLast night it seemed that Nigel Farage (leader of the UK Independence Party) was talking as if Leave had lost. Together with the swing of betting odds toward Remain I wasn't expecting to awaken to news of a vote for Leave and the advent of Interesting Times. I wonder if the lack of domestic prosperity after the financial crisis, and under George Osborne's austerity budgets, has encouraged people to blame immigrants, though on average I would expect that immigrants may well contribute more to the UK economy than do those born here.
Personally it's an awkward blow: given how the vote was split across the nation, I wonder if we have precipitated a breakup of both the UK and the EU. My job here in Scotland with the Open Microscopy Environment is funded largely by the BBSRC, the Wellcome Trust, and the EU. I would rather like to be able to continue my work and not have to move from Perthshire, at least while my children are in school. A high fraction of my colleagues in our office at the University of Dundee are from other EU countries (the first in this morning after me are German, French, Italian) and if we move to an immigration-based points system then I hope that they can continue to live and work here. I wonder in what circumstances they may apply for British citizenship. If I had been returning to Europe from the US without my children I would have looked at finding work somewhere like Heidelberg.
I have been swimming each weekday morning before work. It is a useful time for reflection. Before swimming this morning I felt that we had lost something special. Maybe it is part of accepting what I can't change but now, however irrationally, I have some hope for where the UK's populace can now lead it. Perhaps I had subconsciously accepted the idea of the EU's
What I do hope that is we don't now rush into giving everything up again to remain part of the EU's single market. If we've voted for independence, we should try embracing it, at least while the EU won't feel at all inclined to cut us any breaks anyway: they need to discourage the others. We can still trade with the EU even if not freely, and perhaps there are other useful trade agreements we can pursue now we need not levy the common external tariff.
My thinking on those exit negotiations with the EU applies also to forms of independence for Scotland: I wondered if an improvement on the Scottish National Party's vision would be for Scotland to have its own currency and borders, competing against the remainder of the UK in having English-speaking skilled workers provide products and services to clients around the world. Perhaps Scottish independence is now rather likely: over coming months I expect to (again) hear plenty from Nicola Sturgeon (leader of the SNP) about it and if she achieves a Scottish Leave vote to move from the UK to the EU then perhaps she will begin to train a Sith apprentice as Scotland prepares to adopt the euro.
Kudos to David Cameron for promptly announcing an orderly transition. Except for London, I can't help but wonder if it would be bureaucratically easiest for us all if England & Wales were now to secede from the UK!
Personally it's an awkward blow: given how the vote was split across the nation, I wonder if we have precipitated a breakup of both the UK and the EU. My job here in Scotland with the Open Microscopy Environment is funded largely by the BBSRC, the Wellcome Trust, and the EU. I would rather like to be able to continue my work and not have to move from Perthshire, at least while my children are in school. A high fraction of my colleagues in our office at the University of Dundee are from other EU countries (the first in this morning after me are German, French, Italian) and if we move to an immigration-based points system then I hope that they can continue to live and work here. I wonder in what circumstances they may apply for British citizenship. If I had been returning to Europe from the US without my children I would have looked at finding work somewhere like Heidelberg.
I have been swimming each weekday morning before work. It is a useful time for reflection. Before swimming this morning I felt that we had lost something special. Maybe it is part of accepting what I can't change but now, however irrationally, I have some hope for where the UK's populace can now lead it. Perhaps I had subconsciously accepted the idea of the EU's
democratic deficitmore than I had realized: I hope that the UK's departure helps to push the EU into worthwhile reforms.
What I do hope that is we don't now rush into giving everything up again to remain part of the EU's single market. If we've voted for independence, we should try embracing it, at least while the EU won't feel at all inclined to cut us any breaks anyway: they need to discourage the others. We can still trade with the EU even if not freely, and perhaps there are other useful trade agreements we can pursue now we need not levy the common external tariff.
My thinking on those exit negotiations with the EU applies also to forms of independence for Scotland: I wondered if an improvement on the Scottish National Party's vision would be for Scotland to have its own currency and borders, competing against the remainder of the UK in having English-speaking skilled workers provide products and services to clients around the world. Perhaps Scottish independence is now rather likely: over coming months I expect to (again) hear plenty from Nicola Sturgeon (leader of the SNP) about it and if she achieves a Scottish Leave vote to move from the UK to the EU then perhaps she will begin to train a Sith apprentice as Scotland prepares to adopt the euro.
Kudos to David Cameron for promptly announcing an orderly transition. Except for London, I can't help but wonder if it would be bureaucratically easiest for us all if England & Wales were now to secede from the UK!
no subject
Date: 2016-07-11 09:30 pm (UTC)Not to mention the effect of London losing the ability to host euro-based finance.
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Date: 2016-07-12 07:55 pm (UTC)I'm fine with taking transition costs as given: I'm interested less in where our current trade is than where it might be in a couple of decades' time after new deals are done and supply chains have reconfigured accordingly. Especially, rather than focusing on that the single market is now largely where economies limp under the lingering shadow of the slow-motion disaster that is the Eurozone, I'm curious about if having a common external tariff that limits one's ability to trade more freely more widely is in the longer term a bad move, especially if the outside of the customs union seems to see rather more growth than the inside.
I think the UK has overall had a trade deficit with the EU anyway so I'd guess in the longer term they might well be open to working something out.
London not hosting euro-based finance is absolutely a large issue and I wonder if it is related to why London voted so strongly to . My feelings are mixed, partly because I don't know how much I feel they do anything socially useful anyway (okay, I can see that things like weather derivatives are a good idea).
no subject
Date: 2016-07-13 03:11 pm (UTC)