Cold weather and polar circulation
Nov. 26th, 2016 09:30 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mtbcOutdoors it is above freezing at the moment though frost lingers in the shadow. I had forgotten to mention how pretty the frost has been on surfaces like the cars' body panels: the crystals appear to grow perpendicularly so as to form a miniature ice forest.
Despite my ignorance of meteorology I thought I would do some reading about this moderately cold weather. As best as I can piece together, the summary appears to be: it's complicated but it may indeed often be unseasonably cold here this winter. There appears to be some story in the Arctic involving oscillatory phases and whatnot that has, perhaps somehow due to lack of sea ice, weak polar vortices letting the cold air out; also, blocking patterns stopping the warmer Atlantic air from reaching us, maybe encouraging high pressure systems to sit on the UK and to its north. To what extent this will actually keep our weather colder and whether that is due to shorter-term cycles versus larger climate change trends I am in little position to even guess: the main conclusion seems to be that I ought not put great predictive stock in historical averages.
Despite my ignorance of meteorology I thought I would do some reading about this moderately cold weather. As best as I can piece together, the summary appears to be: it's complicated but it may indeed often be unseasonably cold here this winter. There appears to be some story in the Arctic involving oscillatory phases and whatnot that has, perhaps somehow due to lack of sea ice, weak polar vortices letting the cold air out; also, blocking patterns stopping the warmer Atlantic air from reaching us, maybe encouraging high pressure systems to sit on the UK and to its north. To what extent this will actually keep our weather colder and whether that is due to shorter-term cycles versus larger climate change trends I am in little position to even guess: the main conclusion seems to be that I ought not put great predictive stock in historical averages.
