Disappointed in senior elected officials

[mtbc]

For a few more days, I live in a country that not only allows people to buy military assault rifles but can't even agree that buyers first need a background check. I have wondered if one issue is primaries that tend against the nomination of centrists. However, I happened to catch some Prime Minister's Question Time today and, my goodness.

Before we put forth the relative virtues of parliamentary democracies, consider that the UK has many capable people to choose from yet somehow we have ended up with a government in which Boris Johnson is Prime Minister, Priti Patel is Home Secretary^*, and Liz Truss is Foreign Secretary. How did we manage that? But the Opposition is led by Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner and, again, goodness. I once had some hope for Keir but today he favored cheap rhetoric aimed at soundbites and laughs, a tactic that feels like a tragic waste of an opportunity, It might have been funny had the context not been that of governing the country.

In the meantime, having lived through one independence refendum in Scotland, it seems as if I may have to endure many months of another. Last time, the SNP proposed an incredible fantasy with imaginary numbers and promises about things outside their control, a future in which we could have our cake and eat it. There are credible paths forward, they may even be attractive if they truly embrace independence from England. In practice, on past form, local news will probably be filled with poppycock again.

^*In fairness to her, the position is open only to Sith Lords.

Comments

[wpadmirer]

Well, I'm sure you won't miss all the guns in the USA.

But Lord only knows what will go on in the UK. Doesn't Scotland want to be independent so they can be part of the EU?

[mtbc]

That's my hope, let's see what the reality is. E.g., last time, the SNP spun a story of how Scotland would still use pounds sterling and have an open border with England. If the EU say, welcome back, time for a customs border with England, enjoy using the Euro, then I would be okay with that but it might not be the unicorns and rainbows that the yes voters expected.

[mtbc]

(Admittedly, I had no idea why Scotland would want to use a currency controlled by a different nation's central bank that had no obligation to consider Scotland's interests.)

[aldabra]

(I don't think Westminster has been doing a great job of considering Scotland's interests over the last forty years. Also, the Euro is also going to be controlled elsewhere.)

I think they've missed the window of opportunity. They ought to have jumped in the 1980s when Thatcher was using them as a testing ground for the poll tax. We've got some major austerity coming and we're through the North Sea oil boom; people will blame the austerity on the independence if they coincide.

But still. I hope they don't organise IndyRef 2 in the next couple of years because I want to be in Scotland by the time they do. I think it's going to take an independent Scottish parliament generations to get as corrupt as Westminster is.

[mtbc]

True, though the ECB would have to consider Scotland more than Westminster would, even if not by much. Also, though, I'm curious about the possibilities of Scotland simply running its own currency, even if it loses value then there might be a nice balance of payments story in running outsourced English-speaking well-educated services for customers paying in GBP and USD. Partly, this is my struggling for independence stories that are clearly worth it. If it's all still an open border and common currency and suchlike with England then that cuts off some sources of miracles, Scotland already has devolved health and education and suchlike. At least, regardless of the ECB, the EU does have some equalizing redistribution which might help post-Barnett post-oil, and I'd like to be back in the EU.

As it is, I fear that the SNP plan involves expecting all the oil and, I don't know, Westminster not to relocate shipbuilding work, etc., in order to avoid running a deficit. Even if independence might be a good move abstractly, I've yet to see a story from the SNP that I buy in terms of a credible instance of it being wonderful but not much different. (And I expect HMG to be no nicer in negotiations than the EU was to Boris.)

Inasmuch as they missed the Thatcher-demon window, I suspect that this moment of Boris-cronies plus fresh-Brexit may be the best chance they get in for a while, and they know it (or post-COVID have simply returned to default configuration). For me, for the moment, Nicola retains more credibility for being more cautious about relaxing pandemic restrictions. Any chance of accelerating your escape if independence looks likely? Your CV probably looks quite decent at this moment and you probably get enough warning to effect the move in time.

[mtbc]

I should have added, a concern I have about independent Scotland relying on GBP is it might get quite painful if the economies do end up rather different in the longer term; I suspect that independence may, in time, result in considerable divergence.

[aldabra]

K is quite strongly not on board, which increases friction. But she knows I think IndyRef 2 is a critical moment.

Scotland does have some objectively irreplaceable harbours, which is why they can't denuclearise, at least while being part of us.

[mindstalk]

Yeah, I think own-currency would be best for Scotland's long term economic health. Cf. Iceland surviving 2008 much better than Ireland. Sure, imports to Iceland got really expensive, but everyone kept their jobs. (Apart from the bankers punished by the govt).

[thewayne]

There's an old saying about in a democracy, people deserve what they get, and they deserve to get it good and hard. I've never understood how people vote against their interests, yet they do it time and again. The Torries get re-elected because Labour is so inept at forming a counter-argument. Seems to me the Torries just have to say "Look at how horrible Labour is!" and Labour hangs their head in shame and says "Yeah, we are, aren't we?" and the voters vote for the Torries.

I wish the Scots would vote for independence. My wife has a pretty solid claim for citizenship and I know it would be a rough few years after, but we would love to move up there.

[mtbc]

Mmm, Corbyn got in because, really, look at the other contenders. By the time it gets to a public vote, none of the candidates with a chance are much appealing, perhaps people should be joining the parties so as to influence the nominations … but that's a move toward primaries by another name.

Good luck with joining us in Scotland. (-: