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[personal profile] mtbc
A while ago I noted that over the past several years bond prices have moved in ways I don't understand so when they returned to around their historical peaks I sold what I held. After all, I could then realize a gain and given past performance I had no confidence that they were not about to jump back down 10%. So, naturally, while I was away on vacation they climbed handsomely and are now at a historic high. Oh, what a lovely trade war.

That is fine: I am being somewhat cautious so I expect to miss plenty of opportunities. So much is difficult to predict. And, some paper trading last week with one of my latest investment ideas again failed to confirm that I had yet found anything worth applying to real money. The important thing is that I remember that I am but an amateur who has much yet to learn about financial markets.

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Mark T. B. Carroll

March 2026

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