General election outcome
Jun. 9th, 2017 09:14 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
mtbcThe general election was interesting. I have not much followed news yet to follow details but I figured that I should record my initial impressions and then I can see how the picture looks different to me in due course.
Here in Scotland it seems as if the Conservatives gained votes from the SNP. I suspect that it was due more to a second independence referendum being a poor choice of headline policy for the SNP rather than because many Scots were keen for hard Brexit. In some constituencies the margin of victory was wafer-thin.
In England I guess that UKIP votes went to the Conservatives who lost more votes to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. It makes sense that this could reflect a higher turnout of young people who have woken up to Brexit and do not want it.
Theresa May came out poorly and the Conservatives do not tolerate failure so I expect her to lose the party leadership over this term. During the campaign she did not come across well in the media but Jeremy Corbyn and company hardly outshone her in that regard. I suspect that the Conservatives lost votes to Labour partly because the Conservatives produced a perhaps-overconfident manifesto that needlessly included distractingly unpopular policies and Labour had the courage to present a manifesto that firmly turned its back on austerity.
Personally I have some concern over how things will now go. I have mentioned that I was not convinced by the SNP's view of an
On a personal basis, I would have liked for me or my children to be able to live and work in France or Germany; perhaps that will yet remain possible. The election result is good for me as the SNP's losses make Scottish independence less likely which is helpful from the point of view that my position is largely funded by UK sources south of the border. At least a softer Brexit may make it possible to continue to also receive EU science funding and to retain some kind of EU citizenship.
Here in Scotland it seems as if the Conservatives gained votes from the SNP. I suspect that it was due more to a second independence referendum being a poor choice of headline policy for the SNP rather than because many Scots were keen for hard Brexit. In some constituencies the margin of victory was wafer-thin.
In England I guess that UKIP votes went to the Conservatives who lost more votes to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. It makes sense that this could reflect a higher turnout of young people who have woken up to Brexit and do not want it.
Theresa May came out poorly and the Conservatives do not tolerate failure so I expect her to lose the party leadership over this term. During the campaign she did not come across well in the media but Jeremy Corbyn and company hardly outshone her in that regard. I suspect that the Conservatives lost votes to Labour partly because the Conservatives produced a perhaps-overconfident manifesto that needlessly included distractingly unpopular policies and Labour had the courage to present a manifesto that firmly turned its back on austerity.
Personally I have some concern over how things will now go. I have mentioned that I was not convinced by the SNP's view of an
independentScotland that was intimately tied to the rest of the UK. With the UK exiting the EU it feels even less convincing: I believe the EU to be disinclined to offer much that does not come at considerable cost. I can see remaining in the EU despite my doubts about its governance and I also find it plausible that an independent UK could in the long term have found its way to new trade deals and prosperity and whatnot after an adjustment period of significant duration and severity. I have a fear that, rather than going in one direction or the other, the UK will end up with a soft Brexit that leaves it with the worst of both worlds.
On a personal basis, I would have liked for me or my children to be able to live and work in France or Germany; perhaps that will yet remain possible. The election result is good for me as the SNP's losses make Scottish independence less likely which is helpful from the point of view that my position is largely funded by UK sources south of the border. At least a softer Brexit may make it possible to continue to also receive EU science funding and to retain some kind of EU citizenship.
